5 Big Shifts: What Will the Church Look Like Post-COVID-19?

By Randy Frazee

Before I share my perspective on what the church will look like after the coronavirus, let me offer a couple of disclaimers. First, I missed the “Pastoring through Pandemics” class in seminary. Who would have thought we would ever need that? Second, I do not claim to be a prophet. (As a matter of fact, I lead a non-“prophet” organization.) And besides, if I were a prophet, I would have bought more toilet paper!

The coronavirus has created the single greatest disruptive inflection point for American society in our lifetime. It has called us to a critical pivot in the way we do ministry, not to mention the way all people do life. Churches that didn’t pivot early on most likely lost serious momentum.

It is important we not allow our churches to follow the example of the taxi industry over the last decade or so. When Uber entered the market in 2009 and 200,000 Uber drivers were deployed overnight, the taxi industry did not see it coming . . . it was totally unprepared to respond. Uber disrupted the industry . . . forever. As of 2019 there were 3.9 million Uber drivers. Likewise, COVID-19 has been disruptive to the church. The sheer length of time people from around the world have experienced life without “building-centric” church will definitely cement certain new behaviors into our culture. The church doesn’t want to go the way of taxis.

Whatever seismic shifts have taken place because of the virus, our reactions will need to be customized to our context. Keep that in mind as you read these predictions . . . these five big shifts I see occurring as a result of the coronavirus.

1. From Mono to Mega to Multi to Multi/Micro

The history of the American church started with the “mono-site”—a single church in a community. With the rise of suburbia and mega malls, we shifted from “mom and pop” neighborhood churches to “mega-sites” along freeways. In 1990 came the birth of the multisite church—“one church in multiple locations.” With the rise, speed, and cost-efficiency of technology and now COVID-19, we are entering the era of the “micro-site.”

Many of us have already morphed from one church building to multiple church buildings in many locations. A post-coronavirus paradigm calls us from “one church in many locations to one church in thousands of locations.” Many of us were compelled to use this phrase when the virus broke and in one week churches shifted everything to online. Now, it’s time we view this as possibly our greatest opportunity. As soon as we put a TV in our first multisite location and people showed up, we knew this day was coming. And here it is!

Remember, buildings and screens are just tools to accomplish the mission. Here’s my hunch: The front door of the church building lacks the potential of the church’s “screen” door.

If we can reach hundreds and thousands of people through the front door of the church building, we can reach out to tens of thousands—perhaps even hundreds of thousands—by utilizing the screens of modern technology. The vision is that people will gather in smaller groups, called “micro-sites,” to watch services online and then mobilize to “be the church” right where they are.

These new sites will meet in homes (meaning real estate the church does not build, purchase, or maintain). Jesus’ idea of “love your neighbor” becomes much more effective and tangible in homes filled with neighbors. In these smaller settings, those who gather enjoy a richer connection with each other, and spiritual conversations go much deeper than they can in a few short minutes in the church lobby after a service. Those who live together in a neighborhood will have frequent and spontaneous interactions that create more connectedness, not only with each other, but also with unchurched neighbors. This paradigm is the petri dish for relational evangelism.

I anticipate as we move forward—possibly in the near future—large, live gatherings of churches will occur less frequently . . . perhaps only monthly or quarterly.

2. From Live Services with Online to Online with Live Services

On February 3, Barna released a State of the Church Report that ranked “online church” as the last concern of church leaders. Within a month, the coronavirus caused nearly every church to close their doors, forcing them online. Suddenly, church leaders everywhere were asking, “What does digital ministry look like?” It is more than just adding an online presence. This major change represents the second big shift.

We need to move from live services with an online experience to online services with a live experience. The shift may seem subtle, but it isn’t. We have always bent our resources toward our largest audience. For years that has been a live worship service on Sunday that falls sometime between 9:00 and 11:00 a.m. Not any longer.

For many churches during the heat of coronavirus closures, the online audience was much larger than the attendance they ever experienced in the building. For our church, the difference has been by a factor of 10. “Online” is now our largest audience with the greatest potential reach for the future. The new priority will be to create our services with the online audience as our primary target rather than as an add-on.

Many approaches will attempt to take advantage of this shift. The leaders at the church I serve are preparing our online service two weeks in advance to allow time for the team to insert interactive and engaging elements in the service. The online viewer is not looking in from the outside any longer. The service is now being designed for them. The sermon is about 15 minutes. The overall service is around 45 minutes. The lengths of both of these seem to be what engages the online audience best. We are watching and adjusting as we observe the trends.

For our in-person attendees, we provide live worship with live teaching on the same topic the online audience receives. However, I see a day soon where the teaching component will be video-based even in the live, building-centric service.

This model has been proven over the last 30 years by use of the multisite video venue experiment. People have shown they are more than willing to receive content via a screen, if it is done well. Over the last five years, many churches have begun using an “At the Movies” series with teaching segments embedded into the movie. There is no live teaching. Many churches have reported this series as their best attended Sundays next to Easter. As one who teaches live four times on Sunday, this is a welcomed shift.

3. From ABCs to DEFs on Metrics

The primary metrics we have used in church since I started full-time pastoral ministry 30 years ago have been the ABCs: Attendance, Buildings, Cash. These will no longer be sufficient drivers in our new normal.

I see the shift bending toward the DEFs: Dollars, Engagement, Formation.

We still will need financial resources to provide spiritual goods and services to people, so “Cash/Dollars” remains an essential measure for the church. Engagement is the first newcomer. Passive consumers in the seats will not be an adequate or even a helpful measure moving forward. We all know the total number of views can be deceiving, because many viewers may join in for less than 60 seconds. In this new normal, we must look at how long worshippers stay with us. Fortunately, technology provides this information.

We must also measure what action people take. That means our preaching and services must provide a tangible call to action and next steps for people. Again, technology can easily track this.

This leads to another newcomer in our triad of essential metrics moving forward: Formation. Are people growing in their journey to become more like Jesus? Online ministry must go beyond a Sunday service to include (1) spiritual assessments to help a person discover where they are currently and (2) customizable growth tracks to take them where they need to go. With this change, church moves from a once-a-week experience (on a good week) to a seven-day-a-week relationship. Additionally, I consider the number of people involved in missional small groups—whether they come to your building for worship services or watch online—to be a better metric moving forward than mere weekend attendance.

Until we start to count differently, we won’t act differently. Even as pastors, the “scorecard” drives our behavior. Outreach Magazine’s list of the 100 largest churches in the United States, as historically formulated, has become irrelevant overnight. Active, engaged, online members will be counted moving forward, not just “butts in seats” at the physical building.

4. From 90/10 to 10/90 on Budgets

That leads me to church budgets, which (over time) likely will see a complete reversal, moving from 90/10 to 10/90.

By that, I mean most churches use 90 percent of their cash to pay for staffing and buildings and “export” 10 percent for needs and ministries external to the church. That paradigm is likely to flip-flop, though probably not overnight. I project it will initially shift to be more of a 50-50 scenario—that is, 50 percent of giving used to fund church operations and 50 percent exported by and through the micro-sites.

5. From Sunday School to Home School

Our children’s ministries will shift from a Sunday school model to more of a home school model. Children’s programming has been the major holdout in adoption of this new paradigm. Parents are overwhelmed and feel insecure when they consider bringing the high-energy, complicated, building-centric programs to the home.

But during this pandemic, I believe the code has been cracked and there is momentum in the home school direction. Publishing houses and innovative organizations like Orange are providing high-quality, effective, family-friendly resources to use in a home setting. Many parents experienced a little taste of it (perhaps reluctantly at first) and found it to be not only doable, but that it also provided a meaningful connection with their child.

Let’s be honest, our current building-based children’s programming involves lots of “herding.”When we consider the time it takes to check-in children, feed them, take them to the restroom, and sign them out, there isn’t much time for teaching. With parents in the driver’s seat, the experience moves from “herding” to Deuteronomy 6. The new curriculum will focus not just on content but also on tangible experiences that reinforce the content.

The truth is, the best Sunday-morning children’s worker cannot match even an average parent who strives to impress upon their children biblical principles daily when they “sit at home, walk along the road, when they lie down and when they get up” (Deuteronomy 6:7). I think this shift is most promising; it might even curb the tide of children who leave the church “out the back door” when they grow up.

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People ask me, “Do you think God caused this virus?” I tell them, “I don’t know, but one thing I am sure of: God will use it to expand the kingdom.” So, I encourage pastors and leaders everywhere, let’s go with it and see what God might be up to. Let’s make sure we are uber ready to take on the challenge of the new paradigm that is upon us.

Randy Frazee is the lead pastor of Westside Family Church in Kansas City. He is the author of numerous books, including The Connecting Church 2.0 and Real Simplicity, which he co-authored with his wife, Rozanne.