What surprising survey data suggests about faith and openness in Iran
Tyler McKenzie shares key findings from a 2020 survey about religious identity and beliefs in Iran, noting trends toward secular identification alongside continued belief in God. He reflects on the missional implications for compassion-driven evangelism and prayer amid conflict.
- The survey findings suggest Iran’s religious landscape may be more diverse and secular than commonly assumed.
- Many respondents report major shifts away from inherited religion while remaining spiritually open.
- The article urges prayer, compassion, and thoughtful digital outreach as Christians respond.
By Tyler McKenzie
To be totally honest, this was not the Engage column I was planning to write this week. I was going to offer a summary of the Christian “Just War” tradition and then my opinion on how we should process American military involvement in Iran. But then I ran across this stunning data about the people of Iran.
Who are they?
What do they believe?
How do they feel about God and government?
I about spit out my coffee and fell out my chair. The data is not new. It just wasn’t widely reported on in 2020 when the research was conducted. Over 50,000 people responded. The results can be generalized to the target population with a 95% credibility level. Considering the current military conflict between the U.S. and Israel against Iran, it is worth considering this data again. Here is a summary of the key points:
Iranians are more secular than Muslim
- Only 32.2% of the population identifies as Shi’ite Muslim. An additional 5% identify as Sunni Muslim and 3.2% as Mystical (Sufi). This means that only 40.4% are actually Muslim.
- Compare that with the reality that 46.6% of the population falls into what I would call a secular category of religious affiliation: 22.2% identify as “Nones” (none of the above), 8.8% as Atheist, 7.1% as “spiritual” but not religious, 5.8% as Agnostic, and 2.7% as humanist.
- Additionally, 8% identify as Zoroastrian, 1.5% as Christian, 0.5% as Baha’i, and 0.1% as Jewish.
I had seen the Iranian claims that 99% of the population were Muslim. I was under the impression that Iran was a majority Shi’ite nation who largely supported the strict regime. It appears I was wrong. There are more people who identify with modern secular religious affiliations than Islam.
Iran is undergoing mass-scale religious deconstruction
- 47% reported having transitioned from being religious to non-religious in their lifetime.
- 41% reported that their religious beliefs did not change significantly.
- 6% declared that they had become religious after being non-religious.
- Approximately the same percentage reported that they converted from one religion to another.
- The majority of atheists and agnostics converted from being religious to non-religious.
- Less than 3% were raised in an “unbelieving” or “anti-religious” family.
Over the last several years in the U.S., “deconstruction” has become a buzzword used to describe a generation of Christians who are picking apart and walking away from the Christianity of their childhood. Little did we know, Iran has been deconstructing at an even higher rate.
Many Iranians are spiritually open to God
- 78% of Iranians still believe in God, while only about 20% do not believe in a spiritual realm.
- Approximately 60% reported that they do not pray, while approximately 40% do pray though they differed in their frequency.
This story sounds familiar. While many Americans are not practicing Christians or resist religious identification, many remain spiritually open and curious.
Most Iranians want some form of religious freedom
- 68% believe that religious prescriptions should be excluded from state legislation, even if believers hold a parliamentary majority. Only 14% think that the nation’s law should align with religious law.
- 71% hold the opinion that religious institutions should be responsible for their own funding. Only 10% think that all religious organizations, irrespective of their faith, should receive government support, while about 3% say only Islamic institutions are entitled to such benefits.
- 56% do not want their children to receive religious education at school, but around 54% approve of their children learning about diverse faiths at school.
- 58% said they do not believe in the hijab altogether. Around 72% opposed the compulsory hijab, while 15% insist on the legal obligation to wear the hijab in public.
How Do American Christians Think and Pray Through All This?
If this data from GAMAAN (2020) is even close to accurate, then it suggests the reality of Iran is very different than what has been broadcast by their government. The missional implications for the American church are incredibly significant. Here are a few thoughts:
- Iran may be more open to the gospel right now than at any other point in this generation. If 1.5% of the population is Christian, that means there are around a million Iranian Christians. Organizations like Elam report that the Iranian church is experiencing steady growth despite persecution. Couple that with the data that suggests that 78% of the population still believes in God! I see this as opportunity. When there is the reality of spiritual openness and the inevitable longing for hope that comes during times of chaos and suffering, the gospel is very good news.
- Evangelistic tactics must be rooted in compassion over coercion, grace over obligation. In 1979, 98 percent of Iranians voted to be governed by a very strict, authoritarian Shiite Islamic regime. Today, only a small minority support this. There has been a generational rejection of coercive state religion. We can pray that war will end soon and a new era marked by religious freedom begins. This is a nation in spiritual transition. In the U.S., we have seen that secularism is a failing project. Eventually, its cupboards are proven to be bare of meaning, purpose, and hope. The cross-shaped love of Jesus can be bread of life for a starving people. May we preach in a way that compels rather than triggers.
- GAMAAN (2020) used social media to reach Iranians. How can we? To get this data from Iranians, GAMAAN targeted digital channels by sharing the survey on Instagram pages and Telegram channels (a messaging platform). The link was also shared by Kurdish, Arab, Sufi, and other networks. They were able to bypass the communication blockade of the Iranian government using digital technology. For all its faults, there seems to be great possibility for Christians doing the same.
- Pray for the war to end soon and suffering to be limited. Full stop. Just or not, war is heartbreaking. I am praying that freedom of religion will flourish, a respect for human rights will grow, Iranian people will thrive, and the gospel will captivate millions!
Tyler McKenzie serves as lead pastor at Northeast Christian Church in Louisville, Kentucky. He also produces a fun Bible podcast for parents and their kids called “the Preacher and the Piano man.”
Author: Tyler McKenzie
Tyler McKenzie serves as lead pastor at Northeast Christian Church in Louisville, Kentucky.
