By Kent Fillinger
The 2000s were a turbulent decade. We went from Y2K to 9/11 to H1N1. We had a housing boom followed by an economic bust. As we came to experience the world in high-definition, the sights were often scary and unpleasant””wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Hurricane Katrina, the Boxing Day Tsunami, AIDS, and global poverty. “Hanging chads” made one president”s election controversial, and then the first African-American president won by a clear majority.
We went from watching Friends to drinking Starbucks to opening coffee cafés in our churches. We went from church in one location to one church in many locations. We started the decade with computers and e-mail and ended it with church Web sites, blogs, Facebook, Twitter, Google, and YouTube. We went from “going” to church to the church coming to us through the Internet, complete with online giving. We moved from cell phones to smart phones with text messaging and apps. And we transitioned from a local focus to a global reality.
CHRISTIAN STANDARD launched its annual megachurch and emerging megachurch list in 1998 to chronicle the attendance and baptisms of churches averaging more than 1,000 in attendance from the year prior. This is the sixth year 3:STRANDS Consulting has provided in-depth research and analysis of the megachurches and emerging megachurches. Since the 2000s was the first decade we gathered data on Christian church and church of Christ megachurches and emerging megachurches, a summary of the decade is valuable.
A Decade of Growth
By 2000, the list of churches averaging 1,000 or more each week had grown slightly, from 59 churches in 1997 to 63 churches. The list in 2000 included 20 megachurches (churches averaging 2,000 or more weekly) and 43 emerging megachurches (churches averaging 1,000 to 1,999). The data just compiled for 2009 shows 114 churches””an increase of 81 percent. The list fluctuates yearly, but 53 of the 63 churches that started the decade on the list, ended the decade on the list.
Comparing the top 20 churches in 2000 to the top 20 churches in 2009 shows the tremendous overall growth that occurred in the decade. In 2000, the total attendance for the top 20 churches was 80,691, while last year it was 143,440″”a 78 percent increase.
At the beginning of the decade, the average size of the top 20 churches was 4,035 vs. 7,172 at the end of the decade. In 2000, there were 20 megachurches, while last year there were 54 megachurches””a 170 percent increase for the decade.
In 2000, Southeast Christian (Louisville, Kentucky) was the only church with more than 10,000 in average attendance. In 2005, Christ”s Church of the Valley (Peoria, Arizona) became the second church to exceed 10,000 in attendance. These two churches plus Central Christian (Las Vegas, Nevada) finished the decade averaging more than 10,000. If Southeast Christian grows at the same rate this year as it did in 2009, it will exceed 20,000 in average attendance for the first time.
The first half of the decade was much stronger in terms of growth than the second half. The average annual growth rate for 2000 to 2004 was 8 percent, compared with only 4 percent for the last half of the decade (2005 to 2009). The peak year for growth was 2001 when the combined growth rate of the megachurches and emerging megachurches was 10.8 percent. By comparison, the second-best year for annual growth was 2004, when the churches grew 6.9 percent. The worst year for growth was 2008, when the churches grew only 2.8 percent.
In the last decade, 175,898 people were baptized by megachurches and emerging megachurches, which equates to 48 people being baptized every single day for 10 years. The two best years for the overall baptism ratio were the bookends of the decade, 2000 and 2009, with the decade low for baptisms being 2007.
Leadership longevity marked the decade, with 71 senior ministers serving the entire decade or more in the same church.
The Church of the Decade
The overall “Church of the Decade” based on attendance, growth rate, baptisms, sustainability, and intangibles was Real Life Ministries (Post Falls, Idaho). Real Life grew from four families in 1998 to more than 8,500 in attendance by 2009. Go online to www.ChristianStandard.com to read a free bonus profile of Real Life Ministries.
Four runner-up churches for this “award,” based on the same criteria, were Central Christian (Las Vegas, Nevada), Savannah Christian (in Georgia), The Crossing (Quincy, Illinois), and The Crossing, A Christian Church (in Las Vegas).
What”s Next?
I wish I knew what the future holds, but my guess is megachurches, by necessity, will look and function differently in the future than they do today. Nondenominational churches continue to grow as mainline denominations shrink. The number of people with no church affiliation and no belief in God continues to grow””doubling in the last decade.
Succession planning, debt management, and sustainability will be the three major issues facing the second-generation megachurch, considering that almost half of the current senior ministers will be over 60 by 2020, and the combined indebtedness for these same 55 churches is currently $343.3 million.
If the past decade is any indication of the numerous and significant church and cultural changes that will occur in the next 10 years, then first-generation megachurches will need to continue to adapt and adjust their methodology as they maintain their message and mission to secure sustainability and to survive into their second and third generations.
Kent Fillinger is president of 3:STRANDS Consulting (www.3strandsconsulting.com).
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