How to Tell Your Church Is ‘Tanking’—and What to Do

By Chris Moon 

Is your church in danger of closing? 

A 2021 study by Lifeway Research indicated Protestant churches in America were closing at a faster rate than they were opening. Lifeway reported about 3,000 churches were planted in 2019 compared with 4,500 that closed. That was an accelerated closure rate compared to just five years earlier, when slightly more churches opened than closed.  

Of course, since 2019, the world has endured a global pandemic that drastically altered attendance patterns for many churches.  

So, how do elders or pastors know their churches are sliding toward closure? 

Christian Standard posed that question to Stan Granberg, vice chairman of Heritage 21, which specializes in helping noninstrumental Churches of Christ that are facing closure.  

Granberg has spent years researching failing churches and assisting them as they implement closure plans. He published a book in 2022 on the subject—Empty Church: Why People Don’t Come and What to Do About It. 

As it turns out, these are boom times for Heritage 21—and that’s not necessarily a good sign for the church. 

Granberg said Heritage 21 has helped nearly 300 churches since the group launched in 2016. The majority of those are from the a cappella wing of the Stone-Campbell Movement.  

Heritage 21 recently spent a week in California and had meetings with leaders from 50 churches. Most of those churches were in serious danger of closing, Granberg said. 

He said the number of churches headed toward closure “very much accelerated after COVID.” More of those churches actively are seeking help either to stave off closure or to close gracefully. 

“It seems like churches realize they can’t do the same things they were doing,” he said. “COVID really woke a lot of churches up.” 

ABOUT THOSE ‘TANKING’ CHURCHES 

Granberg, who has a background in church planting, said every congregation is in one of the four stages of the church life cycle—accelerating, booming, decelerating, or tanking.  

The last of these, Granberg said, doesn’t sound very complimentary—and that’s the point. 

“We don’t want them to feel comfortable with where they’re at,” he said.  

So how does a church know it is “tanking”? 

First, Granberg said, Heritage 21 does an assessment of the church to examine its leadership and energy capacities. Specifically, Granberg looks at whether the leaders of the church are capable of making decisions to get the church out of the rut it is in—and whether they have the energy to do so.  

Many failing churches, he said, have older leadership. The leaders and congregations simply lack the energy to change course. 

Granberg said most of the churches he works with have fewer than 75 people in average Sunday attendance. Most of those at one time were running in the hundreds, if not close to 1,000. 

“But they’ve just come to the end of that,” Granberg said.  

He said he assesses a church’s position in its life cycle and tries to determine whether the leaders want to try to renew the church and participate in renewal coaching. While some do have the energy and will to renew, he said, “some just don’t have it.” 

THE RED FLAGS 

There are a few tell-tale signs. 

“So much depends on the age of the people,” Granberg said. 

One benchmark to consider is the “three 50s,” he said.  

First, is the church older than 50 years? Second, are the majority of its members older than 50 years? Third, is its weekly attendance fewer than 50? 

“If all three of those are there, then that’s a real red flag,” Granberg said. “It may not mean it will close immediately, but it’s a real red flag.” 

The age factor is important because as people retire from their jobs, their interests change, he said. Their energy also begins to wane. Working hard in church life—and spending the time to do that—sometimes becomes less important.  

And when leaders age, die off, or move away, there may not be anyone new to take their place, Granberg said. And so the leadership and energy capacity of the church isn’t sufficient for renewal. 

Another factor to consider is whether a church can take care of its own needs.  

A healthy church—even if it is small—will have its own people who can take care of the preaching, teaching, music, small groups, and youth activities.  

“They’re still doing things. They still have life as a body together,” Granberg said. 

He said he’s been in churches that have to bring in preachers and song leaders each Sunday—sometimes from very far away. 

“Really, there’s nothing there. So that church is on life support,” Granberg said. “The remaining people just don’t have any capacities or abilities (to operate the church).” 

One additional factor is the level of financial giving the church experiences from its members. 

Some “tanking” churches have an average weekly giving rate of $75 to $80 per person. That is very high, Granberg said. 

As counterintuitive as it might sound, a healthier giving range for a church is $35 to $50 per person, he said.  

An extraordinarily high per-person giving average typically means a church has a high-capacity giver who is keeping things afloat. When that person dies or moves away, the financial picture at the church will change drastically. 

Granberg said when the per-person weekly giving rate exceeds $75, the church likely isn’t healthy. 

MAKING THE MOST OF IT 

When a “tanking” church opts to take the closure route, Heritage 21 helps ensure any church assets—like its building and reserve funds—are preserved and passed on for future ministry, such as church planting.  

Granberg said church closures are a natural part of any church movement, and good can come from them. He said one study indicated that any church movement should expect to see 2 percent of its churches close each year. 

A healthy closure ensures the resources from those churches are put back into church-planting efforts, Granberg said. That furthers the movement and softens the blow of losing a church. 

Granberg recommends churches should put 30 percent of their remaining assets into church planting. 

“We want them to do something good, not just fritter it away piecemeal,” he said. 

SOME DON’T CLOSE 

Of course, some church leaders opt to rejuvenate their “tanking” church—or at least to try. 

Heritage 21 offers an 18-month renewal coaching plan where churches are asked to become more oriented toward visitors. They might make changes to their signage or worship space.  

And then they plan a couple of big events—like service projects or neighborhood gatherings—where they try to bring in two or three times their normal Sunday attendance. 

One goal is to add three to five new families during the course of that 18 months. It’s a sign of new life.  

Only a small percentage of churches can pull off the rejuvenation effort with success, Granberg said.  

“Part of it is catching them earlier than later,” he said. “We’re trying to do a better job of that.” 

Chris Moon is a pastor and writer living in Redstone, Colorado.